Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 23.858602 26.019718 28.364121 31.109584 34.253590 37.761998 42.001961
2025-11-16 20.507653 23.450068 26.873326 31.202782 36.609468 43.246263 52.184724
2025-11-23 18.104039 21.447102 25.549425 31.064436 38.465511 48.339830 63.047067
2025-11-30 16.311314 19.863710 24.410881 30.837166 40.004690 53.174908 74.736407
2025-12-07 14.984803 18.668060 23.551987 30.756650 41.606659 58.294337 88.244929
2025-12-14 13.858438 17.589174 22.682557 30.474030 42.774386 62.893985 102.296469
2025-12-21 13.348686 17.279101 22.815161 31.626539 46.293703 72.068493 128.265298
2025-12-28 12.537724 16.459603 22.109533 31.368812 47.410910 77.229127 148.270886
2026-01-04 11.894485 15.820792 21.597662 31.331828 48.865661 83.341954 173.528970
2026-01-11 11.425962 15.395879 21.361187 31.700274 51.089807 91.578334 209.289243
2026-01-18 10.886518 14.821240 20.834339 31.498083 52.177040 97.638471 243.050712
2026-01-25 10.398662 14.290045 20.329083 31.267824 53.156979 103.728254 281.983756
2026-02-01 9.977367 13.843940 19.940966 31.232805 54.599895 111.613065 336.632969
2026-02-08 9.554429 13.369793 19.471389 30.998144 55.590288 118.733111 397.610578
2026-02-15 9.160879 12.918797 19.006878 30.722256 56.447799 125.854599 470.179650
2026-02-22 8.799446 12.498486 18.563865 30.439746 57.245175 133.162242 558.457875
2026-03-01 8.495958 12.155253 18.229334 30.335559 58.454573 142.333563 682.589153
2026-03-08 8.187484 11.787053 17.825344 30.047800 59.163390 150.198283 822.192081
2026-03-15 8.108896 11.795785 18.090946 31.172198 63.725273 174.454003 1247.972999
2026-03-22 7.840645 11.469938 17.726764 30.917708 64.558544 184.733845 1578.510134
2026-03-29 7.619624 11.213748 17.474227 30.880603 66.001288 198.580924 2123.899264
2026-04-05 7.463734 11.061526 17.404614 31.241044 68.676635 220.020101 3255.058452
2026-04-12 7.247730 10.794645 17.101852 31.042877 69.655050 233.985333 4611.056065